Coinstar (CSTR) is a good stock for downturns

My non-scientific research (talking to the register folks at a few supermarkets) suggests that Coinstar (CSTR) is stock to watch. Makes perfect sense - in a downturn people are going to look to convert anything to cash - that's why pawn shops do well. So of course folks are going to be a little more motivated to take that rainy day jar of change and turn it into spendable dollars.

And you can take that to the bank! (sorry, felt the need to end this post a la local news anchor)

I can hear clearly now the pundits are gone

Watching Obama's inauguration streamed online was an amazing experience. Am i commenting on the historic nature of the day? No. The record breaking number of concurrent viewers? No. What struck me most was watching the NYTimes.com feed -- there were no pundits, no anchors, just a camera and the voice of whomever was speaking onstage. Why did this seem odd? The moment it struck me was when Obama finished his speech and i had a bit of a "how will i know whether it was good or not, i have no 'people meter' or talking heads to tell me what others are thinking."

Too often i opt into media where there's a narration suggesting whether something was "good" or "bad" and how i should feel about what i just watched, read, heard, used. Maybe it's the rise of the conversation facilitated by social media but I'm actually starting to look to absorb some stuff with the pundit volume turned down to zero and just focus on how it makes me feel, not what the experts or crowds are saying.

Two Tube Stories: Obama, YouTube is the new Google?

On the Tube:

1) You can now download Obama videos from YouTube
Larry Lessig notes that Obama's ChangeDotGov videos are now offered for download on YouTube. We're excited to have gotten this live before such a historic week in American politics. Since I didn't make the Inauguration trip, consider this feature my patriotic contribution - thanks to Maryrose and VJ!

2) YouTube Search Ascendant
Miguel Helft at the NYTimes writes on the trend for video search as the new starting point for users when they want info. I'm mentioned in the article - Miguel's thesis rings true to me - increasingly when someone wants to experience breaking news, research a new car or learn how to caulk a tub they start with YouTube.

In talking with Miguel I also mentioned how this trend and the visceral nature of video could translate to more emotional connections between users and the information they consume. Video is the most immersive media type and as the web becomes more and more about moving images, we're going to feel differently about the content we encounter. Seeing the lush vacation destination unfold in 30 seconds of video instead of trying to imagine "a sandy beach" supported by a photoshopped static image.

The Candy Lab

If you're in NYC check out Papabubble, where they make hard candy like you've never seen.

Great startups don't place wanted ads?

Cleaning out various RSS feeds and in-boxes over the holidays I came across a number of stealth or early stage start-ups looking to make key hires. Beyond recruiters and friend-of-friend "do you know anyone" emails, several were posted to specialized job boards. You'd be tempted to assume that hanging a "hiring" sign in such economically unclear times would be an indicator of success, but another notion struck me. Namely, are such wanted ads actually evidence of individual weakness because these companies haven't been able to source key hires from their current employee base, funders or referral networks?

If a company can get key hires from known channels there are two main advantages.

1) Speed - As serial entrepreneur Mike Cassidy (Stylus, Direct Hit, Xfire) has emphasized, speed is a start-up's best strategy. Check out this preso - specifically slide 16 - and notice how he looks to make offers the same day as interviews. Why can he do this? Great interview process but also familiarity - the people he interviews are folks his team has worked with before. Which brings us to...

2) Execution - The cost of a bad key hire to an early stage start-up can be fatal. When you're hiring people you know there's less risk in culture fit, aptitude, etc. And if you've actually worked together before there's routine, process and shared vocabulary. I've written about this before re: YouTube and how a key success factor was Chad and Steve knew or worked with many of the first 30 hires, including almost all of the engineers.

I wonder how many of the first hires at Facebook, Google, eBay, Yahoo, etc were referrals, especially in engineering. When did they need to place their first wanted ads for non-technical roles?

I wonder how often the ability to source talent comes up in funding discussions, either as the entrepreneur evaluating this as part of VC "smart money" or the VC firm's due diligence. Not just as a post-funding value add, which all firms try to do (Polaris Capital partner Mike Hirshland recently blogged about his satisfaction in helping place 143 senior execs in their portfolio co's), but as something vetted upfront.

For example, asking the founders to document their next 20 hires by position and how they'd find these people. Or looking at how many of the current team came via referral. Or a founder posing a question to a funder like "I need help finding a rockstar VP of Sales. How would you help connect me with five great candidates w/o paying a recruiter."

Great teams matter more than ever. If you can take some team risk off the table you're way ahead of the competition.

2009 Predictions: Crowdsourced video incl me

If you're interested in a bunch of geeks predicting things for 2009, check out this video.