Polls show Obama increasing his lead in the 08 elections but still not the runaway that many pundits believe the Democrats should be delivering. Toss away those numbers anyway because it's likely this election comes down to two factors which aren't properly captured in any poll: cell phones and racists.
The Pew Research Center recently updated their findings re: the political leanings of "cell phone only" Americans and found"the cell-only respondents were significantly more supportive of Obama (by 10-to-15 percentage points) than respondents in the landline sample. For example, in the September survey Obama led McCain by a 55%-to-36% margin among cell only voters, but the candidates were tied at 45% in the landline sample."
Since most polls use landline samples they could be suppressing an additional few points of Obama support but only if these mostly under age 30 demographic turnout - they are also less likely to vote than landliners.
However this tech-youth bump could be drowned out many times over by closet racism. The Bradley Effect refers to the tendency for certain voters to express support for black candidates in polling, only to not show up on election day or get into the voting booth and pick the white guy.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Sunday, September 14, 2008
UNTITLED PALIN PROJECT in development at Disney
Scene 12
SARAH and family are seen packing the white Ford Explorer for the drive to Washington DC. SARAH wears a white parka with fur hood. She exudes confidence.
SARAH
(hurriedly)
Guys, we need to get going. Inauguration ceremony is in three days and we're going to need to drive all night.
(counts family members to make sure everyone is present)
Where's Piper? Piper!
PIPER
(Running)
Sorry mom, NookNook and I have something for you
(undersized eskimo appears from offcamera cradling a seal)
PIPER
I heard you and Dad talking about the Presidential Seal.
(seal barks and snorts in NookNook's arms)
SARAH
Aww, Piper.
(SARAH and PIPER hug)
(hurriedly)
Guys, we need to get going. Inauguration ceremony is in three days and we're going to need to drive all night.
(counts family members to make sure everyone is present)
Where's Piper? Piper!
PIPER
(Running)
Sorry mom, NookNook and I have something for you
(undersized eskimo appears from offcamera cradling a seal)
PIPER
I heard you and Dad talking about the Presidential Seal.
(seal barks and snorts in NookNook's arms)
SARAH
Aww, Piper.
(SARAH and PIPER hug)
Scene 47
SARAH
I'm excited to share that through God's will we are creating a safer world for our children and grandchildren.
JONG-IL
(laughing and shaking head)
Oh, President Palin.
SARAH is on White House lawn with KIM JONG-IL. Both have 2-3 aides standing behind them. Press corp assembles for photo opportunity to witness signing of nuclear deproliferation treaty.
SARAH
I'm excited to share that through God's will we are creating a safer world for our children and grandchildren.
JONG-IL starts to sign when he's startled by a SEAL which has waddled across the white house lawn and goosed him in the crotch. NOOKNOOK comes out running after SEAL and pulls him away from the North Korean leader. Aides all look worried at each other. Press corps gasp. Everyone is tense.
JONG-IL
(laughing and shaking head)
Oh, President Palin.
JONG-IL retuns to signing nuclear treaty. Aides exhale. Press corp starts snapping pictures. SEAL barks loudly from NOOKNOOK's arms.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
He makes a living winning online video contests
Friend-0f-a-friend Happyjoel is trying to make a living by winning online video contests. So far he's succeeding - winning contests as varied as Israel@60 and Klondike ice cream bars.
Sunday, September 07, 2008
NYTimes tells Zagat "time to be like Yelp"
Randall Stross of NYTimes takes Zagat to task for failing to evolve their understanding of user contributed reviews.
Zagat's missed opportunity has been a bugaboo of mine:
Zagat's missed opportunity has been a bugaboo of mine:
- Zagat and web UGC (Aug 07)
- Zagat for sale - at same price as Yelp (Mar 08)
- No buyers for Zagat (Jun 08)
Saturday, September 06, 2008
NYTimes loses its futurist (or "doomed from the moment they decided it should be called 'futurist'")
paidContent reports that Michael Rogers, the NYTimes Futurist, is leaving his role after two years on the job. Doesn't surprise me - no job with that title was ever going to last or accomplish its goal.
The original listing for a futurist turned my head (grew up in NYC-area w/ intense attachment to the local papers) when it was first posted and i pinged a friend at the Times to get a sense of what they were thinking. He offered to connect me with the executive doing the search but I passed.
Around the same time a silicon valley headhunter contacted me to be the "Head of Innovation" for one of the major namebrand consumer Internet companies which had lost its way a bit. Reporting directly to the CEO (who has since left), this person was going to come up with all the revolutionary ideas to reinvent said company.
So with a little bit of rancor I told the recruiter here's what i'd do if i took the job. On Day One I'd get up in front of their middle management and say "I'm changing my title from 'head of innovation' to 'helper of innovation.' And i'm quitting one year from now because there will be no need for me when everyone in this company has the ability and confidence to spread innovation. I'll spend the next year helping the executive team define what they mean by 'innovation,' what's preventing every employee today from being as innovative as possible, and what will be the framework for funding, measuring and prioritizing innovation going forward. And then my job will be done. I'm not your savior and i don't think i'm any more capable of innovation than you are. I'm working for you and your goal is to make my job irrelevant."
Oh that recruiter L-O-V-E-D me - wanted to take me into the CEO's office right away. It amused me that essentially telling the CEO they were wrong and misguided was going to be the quickest path to an offer. Passed on the opportunity but always wondered if they hired someone. Their continued 'innovation' challenges suggest they either did not or, ironically more likely, they actually filled the role but with someone who thought they could be Moses as opposed to broadly changing the culture.
On a related note, with regards to the NYTimes Futurist - and i should say, i don't know this Michael Rogers guy - he's probably perfectly nice - get rid of the stupid title next time -- there's no upside to a cutesy fancy title like that.
First it's going to attract the wrong people who get a hard-on for the loftiness.
Second, why don't you just stick a frickin' "my co-workers are going to hate me" sticker on the guy's back. Here's an easy suggestion - if out of context it sounds like a line from Office Space, don't create the role at your company.
Third, especially since the Times has seen better days from a P&L standpoint and you've got angry shareholders with torches, WTF do you think is going to get cut eventually from the budget? Every time your comptroller looks at the headcount costs this "Futurist" line item is going to piss him off. Raised nails get pounded down. Instead choose something mundane - i would have called it "Director of Retail Operations" - THAT sounds like a job that survives budgets cuts. Not "Futurist."
The original listing for a futurist turned my head (grew up in NYC-area w/ intense attachment to the local papers) when it was first posted and i pinged a friend at the Times to get a sense of what they were thinking. He offered to connect me with the executive doing the search but I passed.
Around the same time a silicon valley headhunter contacted me to be the "Head of Innovation" for one of the major namebrand consumer Internet companies which had lost its way a bit. Reporting directly to the CEO (who has since left), this person was going to come up with all the revolutionary ideas to reinvent said company.
So with a little bit of rancor I told the recruiter here's what i'd do if i took the job. On Day One I'd get up in front of their middle management and say "I'm changing my title from 'head of innovation' to 'helper of innovation.' And i'm quitting one year from now because there will be no need for me when everyone in this company has the ability and confidence to spread innovation. I'll spend the next year helping the executive team define what they mean by 'innovation,' what's preventing every employee today from being as innovative as possible, and what will be the framework for funding, measuring and prioritizing innovation going forward. And then my job will be done. I'm not your savior and i don't think i'm any more capable of innovation than you are. I'm working for you and your goal is to make my job irrelevant."
Oh that recruiter L-O-V-E-D me - wanted to take me into the CEO's office right away. It amused me that essentially telling the CEO they were wrong and misguided was going to be the quickest path to an offer. Passed on the opportunity but always wondered if they hired someone. Their continued 'innovation' challenges suggest they either did not or, ironically more likely, they actually filled the role but with someone who thought they could be Moses as opposed to broadly changing the culture.
On a related note, with regards to the NYTimes Futurist - and i should say, i don't know this Michael Rogers guy - he's probably perfectly nice - get rid of the stupid title next time -- there's no upside to a cutesy fancy title like that.
First it's going to attract the wrong people who get a hard-on for the loftiness.
Second, why don't you just stick a frickin' "my co-workers are going to hate me" sticker on the guy's back. Here's an easy suggestion - if out of context it sounds like a line from Office Space, don't create the role at your company.
Third, especially since the Times has seen better days from a P&L standpoint and you've got angry shareholders with torches, WTF do you think is going to get cut eventually from the budget? Every time your comptroller looks at the headcount costs this "Futurist" line item is going to piss him off. Raised nails get pounded down. Instead choose something mundane - i would have called it "Director of Retail Operations" - THAT sounds like a job that survives budgets cuts. Not "Futurist."
GOP - Not even book smart
Sure there's such a thing as functional intelligence and just being book smart isn't enough, but has there ever been a GOP ticket with less impressive academic credentials?
via wikipedia
McCain: "McCain came into conflict with higher-ranking personnel, he did not always obey the rules, and that contributed to a low class rank (894 of 899)"
Palin: "Palin spent her first college semester at Hawaii Pacific College, transferring in 1983 to North Idaho College and then to the University of Idaho. She attended Matanuska-Susitna College in Alaska for one term, returning to the University of Idaho to complete her Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism, graduating in 1987"
Ok, so bottom of the class and someone who likely would have opted for the University of Phoenix route had it been available in her day.
Yup, that's how mavericks roll! None of this Dem elite "study, go to a good school and get graduate degrees" sort of thing.
Don't wake up after election day this November wishing you'd done more. Donate to Barack.
via wikipedia
McCain: "McCain came into conflict with higher-ranking personnel, he did not always obey the rules, and that contributed to a low class rank (894 of 899)"
Palin: "Palin spent her first college semester at Hawaii Pacific College, transferring in 1983 to North Idaho College and then to the University of Idaho. She attended Matanuska-Susitna College in Alaska for one term, returning to the University of Idaho to complete her Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism, graduating in 1987"
Ok, so bottom of the class and someone who likely would have opted for the University of Phoenix route had it been available in her day.
Yup, that's how mavericks roll! None of this Dem elite "study, go to a good school and get graduate degrees" sort of thing.
Don't wake up after election day this November wishing you'd done more. Donate to Barack.
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