Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wanna be a furry, barbie or yourself?
Some interesting insight into how people want to represent themselves in virtual environments. Only 15% said they want to be dramatically different than their real world selves (closer to 20% when you remove and normalize for the "i don't know" response). As avatars go more mainstream it should be expected that people want to look like themselves or fantasized versions (cooler, more muscular, bustier, etc). I think though, and other research suggests, that kids are more malleable with regards to identity and will do more role playing of altered appearance.
The Mobile Rocky Road
Interesting comments from CBS mobile honcho Cyriac Roeding:
“How do we expect anyone to take this seriously as an advertising device… So let’s make it simpler–let’s talk about usability, let’s not talk about the next 15 menu items, and let’s not try to copy another medium … If you are trying to make this the next online page, you will fail…because this is a new medium in its own right.” [via GigaOm]
Absolutely right. I'm a fan of mobile for YouTube (both as a capture and playback device), but the mobile operator industry needs to create more mobile on-ramps for their users into non-voice services. And I don't just mean ringtones - or the next version of ringtones. Location based applications, messaging, social entertainment. Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and countless startups are giving users the motivation to try and figure out their devices. Let's make sure that billing plans don't prevent users from trying new services and that development hurdles plus individual carrier negotiations don't prevent start-ups from innovating. I've talked with so many small mobile companies who spent needless hours trying to develop for each carrier as opposed to a standardized platform. That sort of cost inhibits innovation.
“How do we expect anyone to take this seriously as an advertising device… So let’s make it simpler–let’s talk about usability, let’s not talk about the next 15 menu items, and let’s not try to copy another medium … If you are trying to make this the next online page, you will fail…because this is a new medium in its own right.” [via GigaOm]
Absolutely right. I'm a fan of mobile for YouTube (both as a capture and playback device), but the mobile operator industry needs to create more mobile on-ramps for their users into non-voice services. And I don't just mean ringtones - or the next version of ringtones. Location based applications, messaging, social entertainment. Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and countless startups are giving users the motivation to try and figure out their devices. Let's make sure that billing plans don't prevent users from trying new services and that development hurdles plus individual carrier negotiations don't prevent start-ups from innovating. I've talked with so many small mobile companies who spent needless hours trying to develop for each carrier as opposed to a standardized platform. That sort of cost inhibits innovation.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Social Media Branding: Fancy Way of Saying Advertisers Will Get Used to UGC
"Brand appropriate" is a stupid term which agencies and advertisers use to CYA when they don't want to figure out how to reach their customers in user-driven spaces such as social networks, video and photo sharing, etc. The occasional unfortunate juxtaposition of a banner ad next to inappropriate content is used as justification for why a more conservative approach to online media makes sense.
Bollacks! First, this is where your customers are so you're going to need to figure it out. Second, it's a media buyer afraid to lose their job over a stupid anomaly when they should be freed by their management to explore all types of engagement. Third, consumers aren't idiots and get that "this part of the page is for random content, this part is for ads" - i.e. they don't see a McDonald's banner on Buffy's MySpace page to be direct sponsorship and endorsement of everything Buffy does.
I actually think a slowdown or recession will speed the embracing of social media - brands will be forced to find low-cost ways of reaching their most engaged target customers and be willing to take risks to drive revenue.
And it's exciting to see some agencies starting to push brands to take this next step into social media. A NY Media conference produced some gems:
Chief Digital Officer of Ogilvy: "always asks the marketing department how many access YouTube—the response rate is never more than 30 percent: “How can you understand the online world when you don’t experience it the way your customers do?”"
David Carlick, managing director, VantagePoint Venture Partners: "you have to go to where the people are and attach yourself to what they want to do. So if the consumer wants to watch videos of people getting drunk and taking their clothes off, that might be where your brand should be. “I don’t think the consumer feels guilty, sitting there saying ‘I hope no one’s watching what I’m doing - oh, there’s McDonald’s - why are they advertising on this site? What a bunch of sleazebags.’ That’s not what happens.”
Bollacks! First, this is where your customers are so you're going to need to figure it out. Second, it's a media buyer afraid to lose their job over a stupid anomaly when they should be freed by their management to explore all types of engagement. Third, consumers aren't idiots and get that "this part of the page is for random content, this part is for ads" - i.e. they don't see a McDonald's banner on Buffy's MySpace page to be direct sponsorship and endorsement of everything Buffy does.
I actually think a slowdown or recession will speed the embracing of social media - brands will be forced to find low-cost ways of reaching their most engaged target customers and be willing to take risks to drive revenue.
And it's exciting to see some agencies starting to push brands to take this next step into social media. A NY Media conference produced some gems:
Chief Digital Officer of Ogilvy: "always asks the marketing department how many access YouTube—the response rate is never more than 30 percent: “How can you understand the online world when you don’t experience it the way your customers do?”"
David Carlick, managing director, VantagePoint Venture Partners: "you have to go to where the people are and attach yourself to what they want to do. So if the consumer wants to watch videos of people getting drunk and taking their clothes off, that might be where your brand should be. “I don’t think the consumer feels guilty, sitting there saying ‘I hope no one’s watching what I’m doing - oh, there’s McDonald’s - why are they advertising on this site? What a bunch of sleazebags.’ That’s not what happens.”
Sunday, January 27, 2008
From lender to loan shark
Someone defaulted on me!
With only $500 spread among nine loans I don't spend too much time minding my Prosper investments. Prosper, the peer-to-peer lending service, sends me an occasional account statement but really my participation was more of an experiment given my interest in community platforms.
My loans themselves were based on a few principles:
Recently I discovered that one of my loans has gone bad - two months late and sent to a collection agency after four months of payments. "Helping son with school" was the solicitation and with a AA credit rating, the loan closed pretty quickly. Now apparently we'd be lucky to get just pennies on the dollar.
My first reaction was curiosity. I wanted to know more about the situation. Extenuating circumstances? Subprime mess? Was this loan his only debt or were there other people he was letting down? Does he intend to repay and just needs a little time, or is he looking to pull one over on a bunch of people he's never met? Were the other Prosper lenders pissed?
Interestingly enough, i can make a community payment - put money towards this loan without hope of repayment (although i might be repaid). This donation would count as a gift for tax purposes. Now that's really fascinating. I'd love to see this extended to a feature where the borrower can plea their case, try to renegotiate the terms of the loan, etc. Get some dialogue among the different borrowers - should we support him again?
With only $500 spread among nine loans I don't spend too much time minding my Prosper investments. Prosper, the peer-to-peer lending service, sends me an occasional account statement but really my participation was more of an experiment given my interest in community platforms.
My loans themselves were based on a few principles:
- only people with B or better credit ratings
- <$100 participation in any single loan
- biased towards people looking to pay down school or credit card debt
Recently I discovered that one of my loans has gone bad - two months late and sent to a collection agency after four months of payments. "Helping son with school" was the solicitation and with a AA credit rating, the loan closed pretty quickly. Now apparently we'd be lucky to get just pennies on the dollar.
My first reaction was curiosity. I wanted to know more about the situation. Extenuating circumstances? Subprime mess? Was this loan his only debt or were there other people he was letting down? Does he intend to repay and just needs a little time, or is he looking to pull one over on a bunch of people he's never met? Were the other Prosper lenders pissed?
Interestingly enough, i can make a community payment - put money towards this loan without hope of repayment (although i might be repaid). This donation would count as a gift for tax purposes. Now that's really fascinating. I'd love to see this extended to a feature where the borrower can plea their case, try to renegotiate the terms of the loan, etc. Get some dialogue among the different borrowers - should we support him again?
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Ideas v Experience
Back in December I found myself at dinner with a (and I mean this lovingly) gray haired technology vet - someone who could spin tales of young Jobs, Ellison, and other Valley luminaries. Over the course of our conversation the idea of obsolescence came up - not of gadgets, but of people. Do most creative folks have a half-life on their ability to invent innovative uses of technology?
I think the answer is definitely "yes," especially if you're focused on the consumer space. I'm fairly certain that today's toddlers are growing up with an understanding of technology which is very different than what I was raised with. A few generations after me and people start to look at ordinary objects is very different ways - newspapers, telephone landlines, the VCR are all anachronisms.
As I started to calculate my own expiration date (still pretty far out!), my companion noted succinctly that the way he always thought of it as "ideas vs experience." That successful folks traffic in both but somewhere along the way you peddle more of the latter (which helps you recognize and execute on good ideas).
I think the answer is definitely "yes," especially if you're focused on the consumer space. I'm fairly certain that today's toddlers are growing up with an understanding of technology which is very different than what I was raised with. A few generations after me and people start to look at ordinary objects is very different ways - newspapers, telephone landlines, the VCR are all anachronisms.
As I started to calculate my own expiration date (still pretty far out!), my companion noted succinctly that the way he always thought of it as "ideas vs experience." That successful folks traffic in both but somewhere along the way you peddle more of the latter (which helps you recognize and execute on good ideas).
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Another Satya Investment (tm)
Good friend and ex-Googler Satya Patel (now at Battery Ventures) just announced another investment - video ad firm FreeWheel. They should take some of that money and buy the .com variant of their name (they used .tv) :-)
Friday, January 18, 2008
Slide funding: get ready for more "fraction of" math
Slide just raised some serious dough at a serious valuation. The fallout? Other widget co's no matter how small are now updating their valuations based upon "fraction of" math.
What's "fraction of" math? It's the "we're 1/10th of slide's size so clearly we're worth $50m" argument. An argument which I saw with YouTube and the $1.65b acquisition.
Why does "fraction of" math not work? Generally "fraction of" math doesn't work because it's applied when the value created was because the lead company hit a milestone or tipping point which suggests their growth will accelerate or they're now able to do something at scale. For example, if you're Slide perhaps now you have enough daily inventory to operate your own ad network instead of taking 55% from a 3rd party. If you're the "1/1oth" company then, nah, you're still at 55% rev share.
These sorts of event given the runners-up at best a place to aim for. In a tight market they help the runners-up (like RockYou), but the also rans? That's the sound of the door closing.... unless of course Slide starts buying smaller co's. Then you better bank on their equity being liquid down the road.
What's "fraction of" math? It's the "we're 1/10th of slide's size so clearly we're worth $50m" argument. An argument which I saw with YouTube and the $1.65b acquisition.
Why does "fraction of" math not work? Generally "fraction of" math doesn't work because it's applied when the value created was because the lead company hit a milestone or tipping point which suggests their growth will accelerate or they're now able to do something at scale. For example, if you're Slide perhaps now you have enough daily inventory to operate your own ad network instead of taking 55% from a 3rd party. If you're the "1/1oth" company then, nah, you're still at 55% rev share.
These sorts of event given the runners-up at best a place to aim for. In a tight market they help the runners-up (like RockYou), but the also rans? That's the sound of the door closing.... unless of course Slide starts buying smaller co's. Then you better bank on their equity being liquid down the road.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Wash your hands young man!
Has anyone seen research which looks at the impact of having other people in the bathroom upon hand washing rates?
My guess would be that having one or two other people in the bathroom with you raises washing rates above normal but that this disappears when the bathroom is crowded (for both wait and anonymity reasons).
This study focuses just on individuals - no comment on bathroom population density as a factor.
If my hypothesis holds true, and hand washing is a great way of preventing disease spread, cities would want to control bathroom density to promote co-usage, and also avoid building one stall public restrooms which would be single use by nature.
My guess would be that having one or two other people in the bathroom with you raises washing rates above normal but that this disappears when the bathroom is crowded (for both wait and anonymity reasons).
This study focuses just on individuals - no comment on bathroom population density as a factor.
If my hypothesis holds true, and hand washing is a great way of preventing disease spread, cities would want to control bathroom density to promote co-usage, and also avoid building one stall public restrooms which would be single use by nature.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
My Second Life story
Just received a galley from James Au of his new book on the making of Second Life (out in Feb; pre-order now).James interviewed me (and the other original SL'ers) for this so i can't wait to check it out and see how it unfolds.
If you are interested in technology, user generated spaces, virtual worlds, sociology, etc I bet you'll like it.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Celebs on YouTube
I love it when celebrities develop their own voice on YouTube separate from mass media. Sometimes they just stick videos up there for the heck of it; other times they're looking to connect with an audience apart from the mainstream channels offered to them.
Some examples:
Some examples:
- Green Day drummer Tre Cool nails Chocolate Rain
- NBA forward Chris Bosh really wants you to vote him into the Allstar Game
- John Mayer riffs Justin Timberlake
- Tamra Davis (hollywood director and wife of Beastie Boy Mike D) started a cooking show
- Or you could just watch Christopher Walken make chicken with pears
- Jim Carrey speaks out about the Myanmar unrest
Saturday, January 12, 2008
X > Y
One would expect that the average Twitter user follows more people than they have followers but I wonder what percentage have more followers than they are following? At scale, is that the definition of popular?
Five Books to Hold You
Spent the post-Xmas week in the Dominican Republic with family (some pics here, here and here). Polished off five books:
1) Everything Bad is Good for You - Re-read. Some of the arguments still feel too narrowly crafted - like he started with the premise and found data to support. But i generally agree with the premise - that popular culture can't be discarded as a teacher of skills.
2) Give Our Regards to the Atom Smashers - Collection of essays with various book and magazine writers giving their tributes to the influence of comic books on their work.
3) Hiding the Elephant - The golden age of magic in 19th/early 20th century America and England
4) Biggest Game in the World - The beginnings of the World Series of Poker
5) Positively Fifth Street - And more poker 20 years later as a Harper's writer covering Vegas' poker scene, uses his advance to enter the game's largest event.
Pop culture, magic, poker and comics. Yup, that's me.
1) Everything Bad is Good for You - Re-read. Some of the arguments still feel too narrowly crafted - like he started with the premise and found data to support. But i generally agree with the premise - that popular culture can't be discarded as a teacher of skills.
2) Give Our Regards to the Atom Smashers - Collection of essays with various book and magazine writers giving their tributes to the influence of comic books on their work.
3) Hiding the Elephant - The golden age of magic in 19th/early 20th century America and England
4) Biggest Game in the World - The beginnings of the World Series of Poker
5) Positively Fifth Street - And more poker 20 years later as a Harper's writer covering Vegas' poker scene, uses his advance to enter the game's largest event.
Pop culture, magic, poker and comics. Yup, that's me.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Classy Rice
Sign of a good Chinese restaurant: they make sure to give you a full rice container for your take-out, even if you've depleted the rice you've ordered.
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